Fall will give way to winter soon enough, raising a perennial question.
Will it snow in Portland?
Most months during the 2020-21 winter season were mild, KPTV (12) meteorologist Mark Nelsen said during Saturday’s Winter Weather Forecast Conference.
Downtown Portland got 10.1 inches of snow — all in February, Nelsen said. That total was the highest since 2016-17, when downtown Portland got 11.2 inches.
So, how much snow is on the horizon for 2021-2022? Could Portland get more snow than last season?
Here are five predictions for the winter months:
Rebecca Muessle — National Weather Service in Portland
One of Rebecca Muessle’s main talking points Saturday was that La Niña conditions have developed as of mid-October.
La Niña’s natural cooling of parts of the Pacific Ocean is the flip side of a warmer El Niño pattern and sets in motion changes to the world’s weather for months and sometimes years. But the changes vary from place to place and aren’t certainties, just tendencies.
This is the second consecutive winter with La Niña conditions.
Muessle has 87% confidence La Niña conditions will persist from December through February.
Muessle didn’t offer exact snowfall predictions but said she expects conditions that are cooler and wetter than normal.
Pete Parsons — Oregon Department of Forestry
Could this winter be Portland’s coldest since 1978? Pete Parsons of the Oregon Department of Forestry thinks there’s a chance.
Parsons also said to look for extreme storms at some point this winter.
He expects November temperatures will be normal and that December will bring near to below normal temperatures and near or above average rain and snow. There could be elevated chances for cold snaps and low-elevation snow, he added.
Parsons expects early 2022 to bring notable temperature changes. He predicts cooler than average conditions — especially in northern Oregon, which has an increased chance of arctic outbreaks. He also believes there’s a heightened chance for low-elevation snow events in January.
Those conditions are expected to continue in February, with increased chances of arctic outbreaks.
The weather service describes such outbreaks as “very cold air masses that typically originate in the Siberian Region of Asia, cross over the north pole into Canada and push south and east into the lower United States.”
Kyle Dittmer — Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
Kyle Dittmer of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission believes La Niña will play a role this winter, but not like how it has in past years.
Dittmer predicts Portland will have four snow events this winter, bringing a total of 8 inches of snow.
He mainly expects the snow to arrive in January but added that Portland could be more prone to a major snowstorm in mid-February.
Tanis Leach — President, Oregon State University Student Chapter of the AMS
Tanis Leach, president of the Oregon State University student chapter of the American Meteorological Society, believes Portland will get between 4 and 12 inches of snow this winter.
His best guess at a specific estimate? Seven inches.
But he believes an arctic blast could boost numbers higher than that.
Leach predicts there could be between one and six snow events that bring roughly 1 inch of snow apiece this winter.
There could also be a chance of a major arctic blast at some point this winter, he said. His best estimate is that Portland temperatures will drop to 11 degrees at some point.
Rod Hill — KGW (8)
Rob Hill of KGW, who didn’t attend Saturday’s conference, is going all cold this winter.
In remarks shared by Nelsen, Hill predicted Portland will get between 4 and 6 inches of snow this winter. He predicted equal chances of Portland having a big storm and not having one at all.
In remarks shared by Nelsen, Hill predicted Portland will get between 4 and 6 inches of snow this winter. He predicted equal chances of Portland having a big storm and not having one at all.
- Aron Yohannes
ayohannes@oregonian.com; @aronyohannes
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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