COVID-19 forecast for North Texas shows continued drop in cases this fall
Hospitalizations are dropping too, with about a 20 percent decrease over the past two weeks in Dallas and Tarrant counties. Data is also showing that the spread is finally slowing down in classrooms.
DALLAS - The latest COVID-19 forecast from UT Southwestern shows a continued decline in new COVID-19 cases moving into the late fall across the region.
Hospitalizations are dropping too, with about a 20 percent decrease over the past two weeks in Dallas and Tarrant counties. Data is also showing that the spread is finally slowing down in classrooms.
This time last month, Texas schools reported close to 43,000 new COVID-19 cases in one week. The week of September 26, new cases plummeted to nearly 13,000.
"I think we could have done much better had we implemented mask and vaccine mandates. But you know we just weren't prepared to go there, and a lot of kids got sick unnecessarily. The numbers are going down anyway. And as for the basis for that, I'm not entirely certain why," said Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor School of Medicine.
Hotez, who disagrees with Gov. Greg Abbott's ban on mask mandates, says the data continues to show we are in a consistent downward trend.
Hotez warns, with a moved "goal post" in the form of a third vaccine dose, it means now more than ever those who are unvaccinated, need to get the shot.
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"If you're unvaccinated, you still have a lot of vulnerability. And even though overall transmission is going down, that doesn't really speak very much about your personal situation," he said.
The decline is happening as the State Fair of Texas returned for the first time since 2019 and schools and school districts are still including "fair days" on their calendars. Tens of thousands are also packing college and NFL stadiums each week. Coming up this weekend is the annual Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma.
"I think it's important not to overthink it, that it's remember thinking about your own vulnerability to COVID 19 and your family's vulnerability to COVID 19," Hotez said.
As health officials have said all pandemic, COVID-19 deaths are a lagging statistic and during late summer there was a big spike in deaths after cases numbers shot up.
"We're reaching a point where Texas could exceed California as the worst affected state in terms of numbers of deaths, and some of the estimates coming from the Institutes of Health Metrics are suggesting 75-80,000 Texans could still lose their lives by the end of this year and the beginning of next year," Hotez said.
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October 05, 2021 at 10:18AM
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COVID-19 forecast for North Texas shows continued drop in cases this fall - FOX 4 Dallas
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