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» » New Napa school budget predicts continued enrollment fall-off, with more closures possible - Napa Valley Register

New Napa school budget predicts continued enrollment fall-off, with more closures possible - Napa Valley Register

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Pueblo Vista Magnet School in Napa

Students made flowers and handwritten notes for teacher appreciation day at Napa's Pueblo Vista Magnet School in May.

Jennifer Huffman, Register file photo

The Napa public school network’s post-pandemic financial forecast for the next three years begins with larger budget reserves than in years past. But officials also warn that a long-running decline in student numbers will continue deep into the decade as birth rates fall and housing costs swell, thus threatening to erode state funding that is based on attendance levels.

Nearly 12.1% of the Napa Valley Unified School District’s 2021-22 budget will be held in reserve, more than four times the 3% minimum required to avoid the risk of insolvency and a state financial takeover. However, that reserve is expected to shrink to 8.1% the following year and to 4.24% in 2023-24, according to the three-year budget NVUSD’s board approved Thursday night.

NVUSD, which operates public schools in Napa and American Canyon, forecasts $174.2 million in revenue in the next fiscal year, which begins Thursday, against expenses of $171.8 million. However, the district is then expected to run two years of deficits as revenues drop to $170.8 million in 2022-23 and $172.4 million in 2023-24, while expenditures in those years are predicted to reach $178.5 million and $180.6 million.

The main roadblock facing Napa’s school system is similar to the difficulty faced by other public school networks statewide, according to district officials — smaller numbers of children reaching school age, amid mounting housing expenses and California’s first population decline in modern times.

Napa’s Harvest Middle School to close after 2021-22 year; River school to become English-Spanish academy

Opposition by school parents and supporters failed to head off NVUSD's move to shrink its middle school footprint amid falling district enrollment.

From the 16,949 children and teenagers enrolled in NVUSD this past school year, attendance is projected to drop by 1,169 over the next three years to 15,779, the district said in its budget summary. Such a fall-off would cost the school system about $20 million in revenue over that span. (Statewide, the California Department of Education reported an enrollment fall-off of more than 160,000 students from 2020 to 2021, during a year when the coronavirus pandemic forced schools into months of remote instruction.)

A district-commissioned study earlier this year envisions the decline continuing well into the decade, leaving NVUSD with only 14,316 students by 2027-28 — a drop of nearly 4,000 over 15 years.

NVUSD, like most California districts, relies mainly on a state formula providing a set amount of education funding for each student enrolled, thus causing enrollment losses to become revenue losses.

School systems in Napa and elsewhere have been spared the full effects of shrinking enrollment by a temporary state policy locking in funding levels to attendance figures from before the first COVID-19 school shutdowns in March 2020, but that waiver is scheduled to end after 2021-22.

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Meanwhile, the expected growth in NVUSD spending will largely be driven by increasing expenses for pensions, salary, and special education programs, the district reported.

The new budget accounts for the closure of Harvest Middle School after June 2022, which the school board approved in April. (Another middle school, River, will be replaced by a new English-Spanish dual-language academy on the same campus.) District officials expect Harvest’s shutdown to conserve more than $1 million in the first year, with more savings in later years.

In addition, authors of the budget warned that falling enrollment may require the closure of elementary schools after the district previously retired the Yountville and Mt. George schools in 2020.

In light of such headwinds, officials recommended that the board approve a commitment to a 10% budget reserve starting with the 2022-23 year.

The tone of the Napa school system’s outlook remained sober despite better-than-expected news for overall education funding in California’s new budget, which is to take effect Thursday.

Bolstered by stronger-than-expected tax revenue during the pandemic that produced a $76 billion surplus, the state’s budget proposal allots $93.7 billion for schools covering kindergarten through 12th grade, up $23 billion from the 2020-21 total, EdSource reported.

The plan also includes a 5.07% cost-of-living adjustment for the local control funding formula that underwrites most public school systems, a $3.2 billion increase. In addition, $11 billion of late payments to school districts from last year would be fully rather than partially reimbursed.

Both the state Senate and Assembly are expected to vote on the $262.6 billion budget Monday.

Check out highlights from graduations held at Napa Valley College and Justin-Siena, New Technology, American Canyon, St. Helena, Calistoga, Napa and Vintage high schools.

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You can reach Howard Yune at 530-763-2266 or hyune@napanews.com

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New Napa school budget predicts continued enrollment fall-off, with more closures possible - Napa Valley Register
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