Scott Smith: This was harder than I thought it would be, but still a fun exercise. I feel like I have to provide some explanations of my approach before I dive right into the list.
I started by coming up with a projection of how many yards Brady would throw for in 2020. The Bucs threw for a league-leading 5,127 yards last year with Jameis Winston at the helm while Brady threw for 4,057 yards in New England with an underwhelming pass-catching corps and a very strong defense. I think we should split the middle on this – Brady should have better production with a much stronger cast around him and the Buccaneers will try to have a more balanced offense that doesn't need to throw for 320 yards a game. So let's go with 4,500. I looked up a number of outside projections that have Brady right around in the 4,300-4,500 range.
Now, how do we divvy it up? Spoiler alert: I'm going to keep Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the top two spots, as they were last year by a wide margin. Read on to find out in what order they land. After that, I have to decide what the Bucs' passing attack is going to look like. Assume a tight end in one of the 3-5 spots, but who will do more, the second tight end or the third wide receiver? And will Brady help propel one of the running backs in the top five?
My answers, which will inform the rest of this article, are 1) Yes, the second tight end will produce more than the third receiver and, 2) Yes, a running back will make it into the top five. Now we can proceed.
5. TE O.J. Howard
As Carmen noted on Monday, there's a good chance the Buccaneers' offense will take the field in "12" personnel more often in 2020 than they did in 2019, meaning they'll be using two tight ends at a time quite a bit. Yes, this was the team's second-most common offensive package after "11" personnel last year, but by a pretty wide margin behind the favored "11" package (three receivers). Tampa Bay's usage of the two-TE grouping was at roughly a league-average level in 2019.
Carmen's not just speculating here; Head Coach Bruce Arians was practically chuckling when he recently noted how set up the Buccaneers were to exploit 12 personnel. This is a team that has some very interesting options for their third receiver – Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, Justin Watson – but certainly none that are yet proven as consistent NFL producers. The Bucs' third-leading receiver in terms of yards last year was indeed Breshad Perriman, but he actually got the majority of his 645 yards after both Godwin and Evans were sidelined in the last three weeks. That's not to discredit his performance; Perriman stepped up big-time to fill the void, and even before then he was starting to come on. But I think it's safe to say that if Godwin and Evans had stayed healthy through the last three or four weeks that a good chunk of Perriman's yards would have gone to them instead.
After that, the Bucs' next two leaders in receiving yard were tight ends – Howard and Cam Brate. Now you add Rob Gronkowski to that group and you have three proven producers at tight end, which explains why Arians is certain he'll be using "12" more often. That's why, when making this list, I decided to go with a second tight end on this list over a third receiver. And, spoiler alert, this means I have Gronkowski higher on the list.
That said I still think this could be a good situation for Howard. I could see him getting a lower volume of catches than Gronkowski but having a very strong yards-per-reception figure. Howard can definitely stretch the seams; in 2017 and 2018, his first two NFL seasons, Howard led all qualifying tight ends with an average of 16.6 yards per catch. (Gronkowski was third at 15.2). It was those numbers, in a pair of seasons that ended on injured reserve, that had the expectations sky high for Howard going into 2019. His per-catch average fell to 13.5 yards in 2019, which still isn't bad for a tight end but isn't a true measure of what he can do.
I'm seeing Howard catch about 28 passes at a clip of about 15 yards each, and thus ending up with 420 yards to finish fifth on the team.
4. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn
This is a bit of a hunch. Vaughn showed he could be a useful pass-catcher in his last season at Vanderbilt and the Bucs drafted him believing he could be a weapon out of the backfield. As Arians said on the night Vaughn was drafted, "We know that he's got good speed. We know that he can catch the ball. We know that he's good in space – he's been very productive there."
Brady definitely knows how to get his running backs involved. One of his great skills is putting the football in the perfect position for a pass-catcher to grab it on the run and gain extra yardage, and that's particularly true on the shorter routes that running backs and slot receivers are likely to run. Over his last five seasons in New England, Brady completed at least 84 passes to his top three backs, and in each of the last three that number was north of 110. Of course, those Patriots teams didn't have a WR duo like Evans and Godwin, so there were more balls to go around for running backs. James White was the leader each of those five seasons, catching between 40 and 87 passes each time.
My hunch here is that Vaughn does prove to be the top pass-catching back in the Bucs' stable and that his role will include a good number of third-down snaps. We don't know yet if he's got the same abilities as White, so predicting a 70 or 80-catch season would be awfully bold. But I'm guessing he ends up with around 50 grabs. White's per-catch average also fluctuated from season to season between 7.7 and 10.3, but overall he has averaged 8.8 yards per reception in his career. That would have ranked 10th among NFL backs last year.
Let's not put Vaughn in that top-10 category just yet. The Bucs' Dare Ogunbowale averaged 8.2 yards per catch as the primary third-down back last year, on 35 catches, so I'm confident Vaughn can match that. Let's give him 55 catches at that right, and that leads to 450 yards, or just a bit more than Howard to sneak into fourth.
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