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If you’re reading this in Canberra, London or Washington, chances are you’re loving the new U.S.-U.K.-Australia deal known as AUKUS. If you’re in Paris — or are an expert in nuclear nonproliferation — chances are you’re canceling canapé-filled galas and worried about how this deal might give Iran an excuse to build the bomb.
During a private call with experts, administration officials failed to satisfactorily answer nuclear-related questions about the trilateral pact.
DARYL KIMBALL, director of the Arms Control Association, had serious questions about what providing Canberra with nuclear-propulsion technology for submarines meant for America’s long-standing nonproliferation policy.
"The fact that Australia is a friendly nation with kangaroos and Vegemite and has a good nonproliferation record is relevant but doesn’t make bending nonproliferation rules a wise thing,” he told us.
Kimball said he and others asked: 1) if the new arrangement would require a change in a 2010 U.S.-Australia nuclear agreement; 2) how the technology transfer could be conducted safely; and 3) whether the administration had considered the deal’s impact on the regional arms race.
The answers to those and other questions were “unsatisfying and evasive,” Kimball complained. ANKIT PANDA, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also called the administration’s responses “unsatisfying” but expected them to hammer out details over the 18-month consultation period.
JAMES ACTON, co-director of Carnegie’s nuclear policy program, wasn’t surprised to hear there weren’t good answers to the nonproliferation questions, “because there aren’t any.”
“It’s a terrible precedent, and there’s no way around it,” he told NatSec Daily.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog, has a safeguards agreement that excludes naval reactors from probes. Simply put, an IAEA inspector can’t be expected to live on a nuke-powered sub for weeks to conduct oversight. As a result, non-nuclear weapons states can declare highly enriched uranium (HEU) for naval propulsion purposes and keep the IAEA from sniffing around that material.
For Australia to have nuke-powered subs, it’s likely going to obtain the same HEU used in American and British vessels.
Still, Acton said, “I find it very hard to believe that if Australia exercises its right to do this, then other countries who have nefarious motives won’t also do it,” though he noted no country has ever taken advantage of this loophole.
There are widespread worries Iran might be the first. It now has an excuse to restart its nuclear-propulsion program to have unmonitored weapons-grade HEU. In a sense, Acton said, AUKUS has unlocked the door for Iran to move closer to a nuclear weapon.
“We’d go apeshit over that,” he told NatSec Daily.
The Biden administration has consistently downplayed these and other nonproliferation concerns. A State Department official posted in Vienna, who was on the expert call, said they had already started discussions with the IAEA about the safeguard issue.
A senior administration official, the same one that spoke with the experts, told reporters yesterday of the nuclear-powered subs: “This technology is extremely sensitive. This is, frankly, an exception to our policy in many respects. I do not anticipate that this will be undertaken in other circumstances going forward. We view this as a one-off.”
And another senior U.S. official wouldn’t answer whether Australia will obtain HEU, but did say “we are not going to prejudge the outcome of the 18-month consultation period” and that “Australia will not produce HEU domestically.”
“Any comparison between Australia — a longstanding supporter of the nonproliferation regime with sterling nonproliferation credentials — and Iran — a country with a lengthy history of noncompliance with nonproliferation-related obligations — is not credible,” the person added. “This is an exceptional case, not a precedent-setting case.”
Reader, we apologize for getting the acronym AUKUS wrong yesterday by adding an extra "u." We'll make sure to do right by U next time.
The Inbox
SCOOP: CHINA TELECOM SPONSOR AXED FOR USAID CHIEF EVENT: Our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN reports that, as of Wednesday morning, USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER was set to speak at an event sponsored by a company the Treasury Department has blacklisted, according to a public announcement. But after POLITICO reached out to everyone involved, the event’s organizers said they canceled the sponsorship from that company, China Telecom.
The event in question is a Sept. 28 gala hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue, and its website listed China Telecom as a sponsor as of midday Wednesday. The Department of Defense first designated China Telecom as a military-linked company last summer. In November 2020, then-President Donald Trump banned Americans from investing in it. The Biden administration reinforced that ban in June and put Treasury in charge of administering the blacklist.
MICHAEL SHIFTER, the president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said China Telecom is no longer a sponsor.
“The company became a gala sponsor on May 12, before it was sanctioned by Treasury,” he emailed POLITICO on Wednesday. “We were not aware that it had been sanctioned until today, when we immediately took action and cancelled the sponsorship. The company is no longer a sponsor. The Dialogue absolutely does not accept sponsorships by US sanctioned or blacklisted entities.”
A USAID spokesperson said Power wasn’t aware of the sponsorship when she agreed to speak at the event. "We were not aware of this sponsorship when the Administrator agreed to speak at the event and understand that this organization is no longer a part of the event,” she said.
Reached by POLITICO, China Telecom said the Inter-American Dialogue hasn't yet informed the state-owned firm of its cancelled contribution.
POLITICO asked Shifter if China Telecom was correct about not being informed, to which Shifter replied: "Earlier today we called China Telecom and informed them we were cancelling the sponsorship. We will soon communicate the decision in writing."
AFGHAN RESISTANCE LEADER TURNS TO K STREET: AHMAD MASSOUD, leader of the armed resistance in Panjshir seeking to depose the Taliban, has hired lobbyist ROBERT STRYK on a pro bono basis. The goal, it seems, is to help the Massoud-led movement gain official political recognition from the Biden administration, per The New York Times’ KENNETH P. VOGEL.
Stryk later told our own CAITLIN OPRYSKO: “It's time for Congress to push the Biden Administration to unleash the individual geniuses of the brave men and women of the Central Intelligence Agency. The Taliban might have the geography but they lack the legitimacy inside of Afghanistan. HE Ahmad Massoud and the NRF have the hearts and minds of the Afghani people. … It's time to start channeling CHARLIE WILSON.”
Massoud is getting a lot of help, namely from Republicans like Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), who want to fund and arm the resistance to the Taliban, as well as have its leader named the true government of Afghanistan by the United States. But that’s quite unlikely to happen, especially since Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN recently told lawmakers the Taliban was the de facto government of the country.
Meanwhile… Rumors are swirling in Washington that the Taliban are searching for a lobbyist of its own. NatSec Daily reached out to SUHAIL SHAHEEN, a spokesperson for the militants, who said: “I don’t have any information in this regard.” But he promised to ask around before getting back to us.
GERMANY THWARTS POSSIBLE YOM KIPPUR TERROR: The German government says it stopped a possible Islamist terrorist attack on a synagogue in the city of Hagen on Yom Kippur.
"We received a very specific and serious tipoff that an attack on the synagogue could take place during the Yom Kippur festival. A reference was made to an Islamist-motivated threat situation," German regional interior minister HERBERT REUL said a Thursday news conference, as reported by CNN’s NADINE SCHMIDT and ROSA STEINDORFF.
"In concrete terms: a specific time, place and perpetrator were named," Reul said.
A 16-year-old Syrian was among four people arrested by German authorities.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — RESTRAINERS VS. TRADITIONALISTS: The pro-restraint Stand Together and Charles Koch Institute will soon announce a Nov. 3 conference that will pit their advocates against proponents of a more global-minded U.S. foreign policy.
“Advancing Security: Realism, Restraint, and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy” will feature speakers such as WILL RUGER, former President DONALD TRUMP’s pick for ambassador to Afghanistan, and another group of officials including retired Adm. JAMES STAVRIDIS, the former NATO chief. Other big names — among them KORI SCHAKE, ANDREW BACEVICH, BARRY POSEN and TOM WRIGHT — also are set to participate.
The mission of the conference, per event organizers, is to foster debate about America’s role in the world, especially after the end of its 20-year military presence in Afghanistan.
FORMER CJCS SAYS COVID POLITICS KILLING AMERICANS: Adm. MIKE MULLEN, the former Joint Chiefs chair, blamed partisan polarization around the pandemic response for the deaths of some Americans.
“Literally, Americans are dying because of the politics, the divisive politics that are out there writ-large and are embedded in the Covid response,” he said on an episode PAUL RIECKHOFF’s “Independent Americans” podcast released Thursday. Mullen recalled that 10 years ago as CJCS, he said the nation’s top threat was the debt. “Now, I get asked what the No. 1 threat is. It’s us, it’s ourselves. And we need leaders to pull us together and pull us out of this, and I think it’s going to be a long haul.”
Mullen also reflected on 20 years of war since 9/11. It was right to go into Afghanistan to get OSAMA BIN LADEN and al Qaeda, he said, but it was wrong to go into Iraq. He said many responsible for years of failure should, like him, take some responsibility.
49,000 AFGHAN REFUGEES ON U.S. BASES: The New York Times’ JENNIFER STEINHAUER and EILEEN SULLIVAN obtained an internal federal document revealing that 49,000 evacuees from Afghanistan are currently spread across eight U.S. military bases, with another 18,000 stuck at overseas facilities.
Roughly 64,000 people in total have arrived in the United States from Afghanistan since Sept. 14, with a small measles outbreak delaying their processing.
IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.
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Make sure to join POLITICO on Thursday, Oct. 7, for our inaugural defense forum, where we’ll talk to the decision-makers in the White House, Congress, military and defense industry who are reshaping American power abroad and redefining military readiness for the future of warfare. Assure your spot by registering here.
Flashpoints
KIM’S TRAIN GAME: So about that North Korea ballistic missile test yesterday… turns out they were launched from a train. A train! (Watch a video of the exercise here.)
Why acquire a TLBM? ADAM MOUNT, director of the defense posture project at the Federation of American Scientists, offered a helpful Twitter thread explaining the rationale.
“Rail mobile missiles are a relatively cheap and reliable option for countries seeking to improve the survivability of their nuclear forces. Russia did it. The US considered it. … It makes a ton of sense for North Korea,” he wrote. “The advantage of rail mobility is the ability to rapidly transport small numbers of missiles in ways that are difficult to predict or detect with national technical means. In other words, it further decreases the confidence of US forces in preemptive counterforce.”
But… “In a crisis, US intelligence will be capable of monitoring this rail network closely to determine its status, chart the movement of trains, and try to distinguish between decoy trains and ones that are nuclear armed,” he added.
TAIWAN TO BOOST DEFENSE SPENDING: Taiwan plans to increase its military spending over the next five years, according to a draft bill obtained by The Wall Street Journal’s JOYU WANG. Roughly $8.7 billion will be used to acquire “homegrown precision missiles, high-performance naval ships and weapons systems for existing warships,” Wang reported. That will add to Taiwan’s record defense spending of $15.1 billion next year, a 4 percent jump from the previous cycle.
“In the face of severe threats from enemies, our military urgently needs to obtain mature weapons capable of being produced on a large scale,” Gen. CHEN HUANG-RONG, deputy head of strategic planning at Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, said Thursday. The news has been met with enthusiasm by U.S. officials NatSec Daily spoke to, while the mood is surely much more sour in Beijing.
BIDEN’S AUSSIE GAFFE: Australians picked up on the American president appearing to forget Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON’s name during the AUKUS reveal Wednesday. “Thank you Boris,” President JOE BIDEN said to the British prime minister before turning to the screen featuring Morrison: “And I want to thank that fellow Down Under. Thank you very much, pal. Appreciate it, Mr. Prime Minister.”
As POLITICO Europe’s ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH noted, “the Australian media jumped on the apparent slip-up, with the Australian, 9 News, news.com.au, Sky News and others zeroing in on it.” But Biden will have a chance to redeem himself when Morrison attends the first-ever in-person leader-level meeting of “The Quad” next week at the White House.
Keystrokes
EXTREMISTS PROMOTED VIOLENCE ON TIKTOK PRIOR TO JAN. 6: In an April 19 briefing, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis warned law enforcement agencies nationwide that domestic extremists had used TikTok ahead of the Capitol insurrection, including by encouraging people to bring guns to Washington on the day Congress certified the 2020 election results, per our own Woodruff Swan and MARK SCOTT.
The analysis comes as federal authorities and lawmakers examine the role that the Chinese-owned platform — already under scrutiny for allegedly sending users’ data to Beijing — and other social media companies played in the deadly riots. In a response to POLITICO, TikTok said it is working to counter extremism.
The Complex
SECNAV SAYS U.S. “EQUAL PARTNER” WITH OTHER NAVIES: Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO told a global audience of world navies Wednesday he fears Cold War-era tactics have returned to the high seas, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. To ensure sea lanes are free and open again, he said the United States must work with other navies as an “equal partner.”
“It’s not just about America being the leader in these global diplomatic allied partnerships, it’s about us being an equal partner with all of these nations that are here today,” he told USNI News’ SAM LAGRONE. “We must all work together, we need to better understand the challenges that all these nations face in their regions. We should put ourselves in their shoes and understand that the economic challenges they have, the national security challenges that they have, and that it’s important for all of us to work together. … It’s not just about their collaboration just with the United States, it’s about their collaboration with each other.”
On the Hill
HASC DINGS F-35: The House Armed Services Committee isn’t sure the world’s most expensive warplane will meet the imminent challenges posed by China and Russia. Because the F-35 takes so much time and money to build, the defense panel fears military advances by the other great world powers will render the American fighter jet increasingly obsolete.
The committee is “uncertain as to whether or not the F-35 aircraft can sufficiently evolve to meet the future expected threat in certain geographical areas of operations in which combat operations could occur,” reads the report accompanying its FY22 defense policy bill, per Bloomberg’s ANTHONY CAPACCIO.
Broadsides
NOT SO SUBTLE RESPONSE FROM PARIS: French Minister of Foreign Affairs JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN and Minister of the Armed Forces FLORENCE PARLY didn’t settle for a subtweet, instead offering a blistering critique of AUKUS after Australia canceled a multibillion dollar submarine deal.
“The American choice to exclude a European ally and partner such as France from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, whether in terms of our values or in terms of respect for multilateralism based on the rule of law, shows a lack of coherence that France can only note and regret,” they said in a late-night joint statement.
They also argued the U.S. decision “only reinforces the need to make the issue of European strategic autonomy loud and clear. There is no other credible way to defend our interests and our values in the world, including in the Indo-Pacific.”
In a later interview with Franceinfo, Le Drian called the move “a stab in the back,” saying: “We had established a trusting relationship with Australia, and this trust was betrayed.”
BRUNO TERTRAIS, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategy Research in Paris and deeply involved in strengthening France-Australia ties, told me the U.S. only informed France of the AUKUS deal yesterday — the day of the announcement.
BENJAMIN HADDAD, director of the Europe center at the Atlantic Council and who’s close to the French administration, said the decision “is kind of an earthquake in Paris for the foreign policy and defense establishment.” This was more than a commercial contract for France, he told NatSec Daily, as the sub sales were a key cog in France’s Indo-Pacific strategy. “The secretive and unilateral way this was conducted is a blow to U.S.-E.U. strategy” in the region, saying it remains unclear when Paris was told of AUKUS by Washington.
France is so angry that its embassy in Washington canceled a gala planned for Friday on a French frigate in Baltimore.
Transitions
— MARIANO-FLORENTINO CUÉLLAR, associate justice of the California Supreme Court, has been selected as the next president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, announced PENNY PRITZKER, chair of the board of trustees.
— JENNIFER SIME is joining Physicians for Human Rights as its new chief operating officer. She most recently served as senior vice president at the International Rescue Committee, leading the Resettlement, Asylum, and Integration Department; the Awards Management Unit; and the Measurement Unit.
What to Read
— ELISABETH BRAW, Foreign Policy: “NATO’s Man in Kabul”
— JESSICA D. BLANKSHAIN and MAX Z. MARGULIES, The New York Times: “The Downside of High Trust in the Military”
— CLAUDIA GRISALES, NPR: “The Capitol Faces Its Biggest Security Test Since Jan. 6 On Saturday”
Tomorrow Today
— Chatham House, 5 a.m.: “In conversation with NANCY PELOSI — with ROBIN NIBLETT”
— Chatham House, 6 a.m.: “Smart Peace: Innovative Peacebuilding in Nigeria, Central Africa Republic and Myanmar”
— The Institute of International and European Affairs, 8 a.m.: “Building Europe’s Cyber Resilience through Defence and Diplomacy — with MANON LE BLANC, CHRISTIAN-MARC LIFLÄNDER and HELI TIIRMA-KLAAR”
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: “Book Launch: ‘Three Dangerous Men’ with SETH JONES — with EMILY HARDING and DAVID SANGER”
— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12:30 p.m.: “Countering Cyber Threats to Critical Infrastructure: What’s Next? — with TOM FANNING, JIM LANGEVIN, ERICA LONERGAN and CHERI MCGUIRE”
— The Heritage Foundation, 1 p.m.: “The Best Defense Strategy for America? ELBRIDGE COLBY on The Strategy of Denial — with THOMAS SPOEHR”
— The Atlantic Council, 2:15 p.m.: “Toward integrated deterrence: A conversation with vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. JOHN E. HYTEN, USAF — with MICHAEL ANDERSSON, PAULA J. DOBRIANSKY and COURTNEY KUBE”
— The American Enterprise Institute, 2:30 p.m.: “Resilience in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Australian Foreign Minister MARISE PAYNE — with KORI SCHAKE”
Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.
Thanks to Ben Pauker — who would never let our takes go nuclear — for his edits.
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