A University of Massachusetts model suggests coronavirus deaths in Massachusetts will continue to decline in the weeks ahead, but the pandemic is far from over, with the death toll headed toward 8,800 by Aug. 15.
The model estimates that by that day, the state will tally 8,783 deaths, but researchers noted that the death tally could range from 8,656 to 9,019.
The estimate comes from a lab headed by UMass Amherst associate professor Nicholas Reich that collects various coronavirus pandemic models and develops a combined, or ensemble, forecast that is intended to reflect their collective wisdom.
Reich’s lab releases the ensemble forecast weekly. It only creates the forecast for a four-week window ahead because it believes forecasts aren’t reliable enough after that.
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The forecast released this week for Aug. 15 was up only slightly from last week’s forecast for Aug. 8, which was 8,774.
“Taken together, the models are expecting a continued slow decline in COVID-19 deaths in Massachusetts, with around 80 deaths expected in the week ending August 15, 2020, compared with 109 last week,” Reich said Wednesday in an e-mail.
“However,” he noted, “the models are also not ruling out an increase in COVID-19 deaths, with a 10% chance of seeing over 180 deaths per week by mid-August.”
As of Tuesday, the state Department of Public Health had tallied 8,450 deaths from the pandemic.
Reich’s lab posts its national- and state-level data at the Reich Lab COVID-19 Forecast Hub. The lab, already an Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence, collaborates with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on coronavirus predictions.
The closely watched University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model, looking further into the future, predicts that Massachusetts will see 10,121 coronavirus deaths by Nov. 1.
The latest UMass ensemble model also predicts the United States as a whole will reach a total of about 164,000 deaths in four weeks.
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The current US death toll was more than 142,000 as of Wednesday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The forecast comes as cases and deaths are rising nationally, particularly in the South and West. On Tuesday, the United States recorded more than 1,000 new deaths, the first time the country has topped that mark in nearly 50 days. Also Tuesday, President Trump said the pandemic “will probably get worse before it gets better.”
“Models aren’t always sure what to make of the recent case surge and how it will translate into deaths,” Reich said on Twitter. “On the whole, they appear reasonably confident that #COVID19 deaths will continue to rise in Florida and Texas. The models are less confident seeing continued increases in weekly #COVID19 deaths in Arizona and California, two other case ‘hot-spots.‘ ”
Reich added that “in all of these locations, continued large increases in deaths over the next 4 weeks are seen as distinct possibilities.”
The University of Washington model is now predicting more than 224,000 deaths nationwide by Nov. 1. In a CNBC interview, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said, “In the United States, probably, by the end of the year we could have upwards of 300,000, if we continue on the current trajectory.”
Material from Globe wire services was used in this report.
Martin finucane can be reached at martin.finucane@globe.com
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