I don't watch much studio coverage for live sports. I am not the person tuning into the hours of pregame coverage for college football or the NFL, nor am I the type laughing at all the inside jokes between Charles Barkley and Shaq following broadcasts of NBA games. I'm just one of those weird sports fans who prefer sports to talking about sports, which is probably an odd personality trait for a person paid to write and talk about sports.
Still, on Sunday morning, I flipped on the television to a network pregame show. I wanted to watch the F1 race from Brazil, but the wife wanted me to wait until she got home to watch it with me, so I was killing time and wanted to stay off the internet to avoid spoilers. So there I was, watching an NFL pregame show that ran a five-minute feature about Russell Wilson and his incredible comeback story. Russ was talking directly to the camera about all the hard work he put in to come back quickly, and it even had his doctor talk about how Russ was "built different" (yes, an actual doctor said this) because of the way he worked and recovered.
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It was an incredible story about one man's journey to overcome the debilitating injury that is a broken finger. Seriously, I respect the hell out of Russell Wilson as a football player and do not question his toughness in the slightest. But they treated him recovering from a broken finger as if it was a much more serious injury.
It was a broken finger! And it looks like Russ came back too soon because he completed only 20 of his 40 passes with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 17-0 loss to the Packers.
At least it was an excellent reminder of why I generally avoid those shows.
Now let's get to tonight's picks, which I rehabbed 19 hours per day for the last month preparing myself to make.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
🏈 Rams at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120): I don't like a whole lot about this game. When breaking it down, I concluded that I'd rather lay the points with the Rams than take San Francisco, but I don't see much room on either side of a 3.5-point spread. I lean toward the over when it comes to the total, but I'd love it if the total were at 49 instead of 50.5.
Thankfully, there are always a billion props available to bet, and I found one I have a lot of confidence in. Jimmy Garoppolo is a pretty average NFL starting quarterback. He's capable of doing some stuff that will help you win games, and as we've seen, if you surround him with a good enough team, he can even help you get to the Super Bowl. We've also seen that he's not the kind of QB who will go out and win games on his own and he makes too many fatal mistakes.
Among 34 qualified passers this season, Jimmy G ranks 23rd in interception rate at 2.3%. It's not a recent trend, as Garoppolo's interception rate of 2.8% since joining the 49ers ranks 34th among 37 QBs with at least 900 pass attempts in that time (Jameis Winston is last at 3.6%). Within that trend for Jimmy is another trend.
Most of the interceptions come against zone coverage.
Over the last four seasons, Jimmy G has an interception rate of 3.0% against zone coverages compared to 2.4% against man. Neither is good, but that's a significant difference between the two, and tonight he'll be up against a Rams defense that runs zone coverages more often (78.6%) than any other team in the NFL. Considering San Francisco is an underdog, and this could be a shootout, that means Garoppolo might be asked to throw a lot, which only increases the odds he's picked off at least once.
Key Trend: Jimmy G has the fourth-highest INT rate of passers with at least 900 attempts since 2017.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's R.J. White is 37-19-1 ATS in his last 57 picks involving the Rams and he has a spread play available for tonight's game if you'd prefer that to betting on Jimmy G's fallibilities.
💰 The Picks
🏀 NBA
Nuggets at Mavericks, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
The Pick: Under 209.5 (-110) -- Over the first week or two of the NBA season, many of you sent me emails or tweets asking me to stop picking so many unders. I have not stopped picking NBA unders, and the complaints have gone away because the under is the right place to be in the NBA! While it has balanced out in November, the under is still a remarkable 119-79 in the NBA this season. That's 60%! They've lowered the totals, and it hasn't made much of an impact yet, and tonight they have not lowered the total for this game far enough.
Neither of these teams has been good offensively this season, but Denver ranks second in the NBA in defensive rating. Both are also slow-moving, as the Mavs rank 21st in the league in pace, while Denver's in 29th. So we have two inefficient offenses moving slowly. That's not a formula that's led to many overs in the NBA this season.
Key Trend: The under is 20-8 in Denver's last 28 road games and 6-1-1 in Dallas' last eight home games.
🏀 College Basketball
Penn State at UMass, 7 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network
The Pick: Under 142.5 (-115) -- It's still very early in the college basketball season, but while I don't know everything I'd like to at this point, I do know that Penn State wants to move slow. That pace leads me to find value on the under here as I have this total being a few points too high.
UMass wants to get out and run, and it's been effective doing so through two games. However, there's a difference to being able to dictate your own pace against teams like UMBC and Yale compared to a Big Ten team like Penn State. This veteran Penn State team will control the style of play on the road tonight and look to keep things as slow as possible to make up for its offensive deficiencies. Don't expect many fireworks in this one.
Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in Penn State's last seven games as a favorite.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: You might not plan to watch tonight's college basketball game between Presbyterian and The Citadel, but considering that the SportsLine Projection Model and two SportsLine experts are all on the same side of the spread, you might want to change your plans.
🏀 College Basketball Parlay
There really isn't a whole lot on the board I'm in love with tonight. I'd been hoping to share a game pick for Monday Night Football and then a few props for you down here, but there isn't much value to be found. So, let's just go with a straightforward parlay paying +100.
- LSU (-420)
- Missouri (-650)
- New Mexico (-475)
- St. Mary's (-650)
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November 16, 2021 at 04:08AM
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Why Rams defense will give Jimmy Garoppolo problems, plus other best bets for Monday - CBS Sports
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